David Rudisha's Potential

[oldboy]

David Rudisha improved his time in Rieti and it begs the question: “How much further can he go?” Today in Split he proved that he can win without a pacemaker.

It was noticeable in both record breaking races that he was never close enough to the rabbit to benefit from running in the rabbit’s “wind shadow” or drafting as it is commonly known.

Leaning on the research of others I come to the conclusion that a further improvement of between .1sec and 1sec would should be within his reach as a result of drafting for at least one circuit of the track

The assumption is made that drafting is limited to one lap form the break point to the same point one lap later. The athletes are in lanes for the first bend and in Rudisha’s case he was in the lead from 515m point. One could imagine that meeting organisers could contrive to put Rudisha in Lane 8 and the rabbit in Lane 7. If the two runners then run towards the inside and outside of their lanes respectively, Rudisha would be effectively running off the shoulder round the first bend and gain some additional benefit.

But is this what racing is all about? It so, then equip athletic tracks with an inside or outside hare like dog tracks. Many theories require the athlete to be a programmable robot for implementation. The hare is programmable, but would the spectators be interested? Any views?

[d pickup]

I've wondered for years whether there are any training tracks where a dog-track hare-track has been installed! Or whether athletes have visited a dog track & used the hare. (I did, once, years ago, as a spectator; the female dog handlers took my eye more than the hare).

Yes, 'wind shadowing' or not, DR will surely improve on his 1.41.01. Even if the statiticians don't see his WRs being so ahead of their time as Bolt's, of these 2 runners it will be DR that I will watching with most interest in the next 2 seasons. The best even is the 800 in anycase!

Reflection: the rest of the top 800 runners know what they are up against, a man who goes to the front and can do 1.41 -1.42. Are they already settling for 2nd slot? I doubt that, but like Gay/Powell in the 100, they have a tough job, so it will be interesting to see how they talk and race in the next 2 years. It was interesting to see the difference between the Berlin & Rieti races in this context.

[SteveK26]

The problem Mr. Rudisha has is the same dilemma that faced Coe in the eighties: Do you lead out a major in sub 1-43 pace and leave yourself vulnerable to the athlete who sits behind? Get the pacing wrong and you could be doomed; or if a very talented rival tags on for the ride you could lose the race AND your record.
800's in majors are difficult to win, dont bank on the fact that because Rudisha is the fastest he will always win the big prizes.

[d pickup]

The problem Mr. Rudisha has is the same dilemma that faced Coe in the eighties: Do you lead out a major in sub 1-43 pace and leave yourself vulnerable to the athlete who sits behind? Get the pacing wrong and you could be doomed; or if a very talented rival tags on for the ride you could lose the race AND your record.
800's in majors are difficult to win, dont bank on the fact that because Rudisha is the fastest he will always win the big prizes.

Q1 Were Coe's rivals as close to him as DR's are?

This list, the PBs of the top ones of Coe's time and DR's time, might help, if only a little:
1:41.01 David Lekuta Rudisha KEN 17/12/1988 1r1 Rieti 29/08/2010
1:41.73 Sebastian Coe GBR 29/09/1956 1 Firenze 10/06/1981
1:41.77 Joaquim Cruz BRA 12/03/1963 1 Köln 26/08/1984
1:42.23 Abubaker Kaki SUD 21/06/1989 2 Oslo (Bislett) 04/06/2010
1:42.28 Sammy Koskei KEN 14/05/1961 2 Köln 26/08/1984
1:42.60 Johnny Gray USA 19/06/1960 2r1 Koblenz 28/08/1985
1:42.67 Alfred Kirwa Yego KEN 28/11/1986 2r1 Rieti 06/09/2009
1:42.79 Yuriy Borzakovskiy 1 Monaco 29/07/2008
1:42.79 Yusuf Saad Kamel BRN 29/03/1983 2 Monaco 29/07/2008
1:42.86 Mbulaeni Mulaudzi RSA 08/09/1980 3r1 Rieti 06/09/2009
1:42.88 Steve Cram GBR 14/10/1960 1r1 Zürich 21/08/1985
1:42.95 Boaz Kiplagat Lalang KEN 08/02/1989 2r1 Rieti 29/08/2010

Q2 Has any 800 runner won an OLY/World Champ gold leading all the way / leading from 400-300m out?
I remember, for instance, Halberg & Foster in their MD races, going for home a long way from home; very brave, but has it been done in 800 Champs. A bit of research needed or some one here will know.

[mump boy]

The problem Mr. Rudisha has is the same dilemma that faced Coe in the eighties: Do you lead out a major in sub 1-43 pace and leave yourself vulnerable to the athlete who sits behind? Get the pacing wrong and you could be doomed; or if a very talented rival tags on for the ride you could lose the race AND your record.
800's in majors are difficult to win, dont bank on the fact that because Rudisha is the fastest he will always win the big prizes.

Q1 Were Coe's rivals as close to him as DR's are?

This list, the PBs of the top ones of Coe's time and DR's time, might help, if only a little:
1:41.01 David Lekuta Rudisha KEN 17/12/1988 1r1 Rieti 29/08/2010
1:41.73 Sebastian Coe GBR 29/09/1956 1 Firenze 10/06/1981
1:41.77 Joaquim Cruz BRA 12/03/1963 1 Köln 26/08/1984
1:42.23 Abubaker Kaki SUD 21/06/1989 2 Oslo (Bislett) 04/06/2010
1:42.28 Sammy Koskei KEN 14/05/1961 2 Köln 26/08/1984
1:42.60 Johnny Gray USA 19/06/1960 2r1 Koblenz 28/08/1985
1:42.67 Alfred Kirwa Yego KEN 28/11/1986 2r1 Rieti 06/09/2009
1:42.79 Yuriy Borzakovskiy 1 Monaco 29/07/2008
1:42.79 Yusuf Saad Kamel BRN 29/03/1983 2 Monaco 29/07/2008
1:42.86 Mbulaeni Mulaudzi RSA 08/09/1980 3r1 Rieti 06/09/2009
1:42.88 Steve Cram GBR 14/10/1960 1r1 Zürich 21/08/1985
1:42.95 Boaz Kiplagat Lalang KEN 08/02/1989 2r1 Rieti 29/08/2010

Q2 Has any 800 runner won an OLY/World Champ gold leading all the way / leading from 400-300m out?
I remember, for instance, Halberg & Foster in their MD races, going for home a long way from home; very brave, but has it been done in 800 Champs. A bit of research needed or some one here will know.

wilson certainly did

[nuvola]

The last two majors have been won gun to tape (by Bungei and Mulaudzi)- its not always such a risky tactic as the leader can dictate the tempo.

I may be wrong but I think that neither of the two mentioned above were ranked number 1 when they won their titles- rather they used their experience of racing to win ahead of faster ranked athletes such as Kaki and Rudisha.

Rudisha has proved this year that he can lead from gun to tape with out a 'rabbit' and still beat athletes who have ran 1'42''. He can also run 1'43'' off his own back front running without a pace maker so if he keeps fit its looking pretty ominous for the up comming worlds and Olympics- and that presuming he doesnt get any faster!

Prompts a question for someone more knowledgeable than myself- what is the fastest 800m race ever with out pace maker? Would be really interesting to know this.

[SteveK26]

Juantorena more or less led all the way in 1976, (briefly passed at the bell, but went straight back into the lead), and he broke the world record as well.

[Kermit]

Sorry I can't be doing with the stats or the science today, I'm going with what I have seen and my gut.

The last Diamond League race stood out for me because Rudisha made it clear that he wanted to race and that much became apparent when he deliberately slowed down in the back straight when ahead of his own world record pace set in Berlin.

Then we have this past weekend. Rudisha enquired about the fastest time ever run without a pace maker and went for it.

Here is a man who wants it all and only a succession of injuries will stop him from achieving that goal.

[d pickup]

Sorry I can't be doing with the stats or the science today, I'm going with what I have seen and my gut.

The last Diamond League race stood out for me because Rudisha made it clear that he wanted to race and that much became apparent when he deliberately slowed down in the back straight when ahead of his own world record pace set in Berlin.

... past weekend. Rudisha enquired about the fastest time ever run without a pace maker and went for it.

Kermit, I very much appreciate this summary of recent Rudisha races. And I agree, DR, barring injury, is going to take some stopping.

“Never ignore a gut feeling, but never believe that it's enough.”
Robert Heller

I'll not drop my stats and science - but I'll keep reading what emerges from your gut!

[speedyg2012]

Sorry I can't be doing with the stats or the science today, I'm going with what I have seen and my gut.

The last Diamond League race stood out for me because Rudisha made it clear that he wanted to race and that much became apparent when he deliberately slowed down in the back straight when ahead of his own world record pace set in Berlin.

... past weekend. Rudisha enquired about the fastest time ever run without a pace maker and went for it.

Kermit, I very much appreciate this summary of recent Rudisha races. And I agree, DR, barring injury, is going to take some stopping.

“Never ignore a gut feeling, but never believe that it's enough.”
Robert Heller

I'll not drop my stats and science - but I'll keep reading what emerges from your gut!

Ewww, rather you than me mate!



Rudisha looked so comfortable as well which was a surprise to me and suggests he can mix it up whenever he feels like it. If he has to battle and race, he'll do it. He's not afraid to stick to his tactics and mix it up without pacemakes, which bodes well for the future compared to those in the past who could ran fast time when conditions and pace-making allowed, but rarely transferred this to Championships, as they couldn't race properly, when everyone knows finals are slower and more tactical (The infamous 'kick down the back straight, every man and women for themselves!)

[d pickup]

Sorry I can't be doing with the stats or the science today, I'm going with what I have seen and my gut.

I'll not drop my stats and science - but I'll keep reading what emerges from your gut!

Ewww, rather you than me mate!

... small intestine 6-7m long, 35mm in diameter, the large intestine 1.5m long, DR 1.88m tall ... and somebody(s) will have to deal with the guts of the 50 bulls at his welcoming home feast in his native Oltanki ... 'in the ruminant animal, it [small intestine] can be 140 feet long'! I'm definitely going to stick to stats and sc.

[speedyg2012]

LOL! You talk in stats and sc in your sleep?



I wonder if Rudisha will still be this good in 2012? Is seems common for new names in 800m to emerge and disappear every season. Seems and unforgiving and ruthless event each season.

[d pickup]

LOL! You talk in stats and sc in your sleep?

I wonder if Rudisha will still be this good in 2012? Is seems common for new names in 800m to emerge and disappear every season. Seems and unforgiving and ruthless event each season.

For family/marriage reasons many KEN women come and go quickly, but KEN men don't get that pressure. Do you think the turnover in 800 is greater than other events??? One could spend weeks checking that one.

Who are this 800m runners? Those who aren't fast enough to make the grade at sprinty 400 (DR is one), or those who find the long grind of 1500m too much (were Coe / Ovett best suited to 800 or 1500? - I'm sure that is an old chestnut).

###

Meanwhile an aside from DR's potential (& speedyg2012 I do plan to get back to that other aside - the 140' small intestines, yes all sorts of stats going round my head as I retired for sleep last night!).

'Rudisha to be a Maasai elder'

It's Usain St. Leo Bolt, OJ, C.D., and Queen's Uni, Belfast, thinks to bestow on him an honorary doctorate.

For DR, he is to be made a Maasai elder, a very significant Maasai accolade.

'Maasai society is strongly patriarchal in nature, with elder men, sometimes joined by retired elders, deciding most major matters for each Maasai group. A full body of oral law covers many aspects of behaviour.'

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maasai_people

Doubtless DR will get many awards by the end of the year. Athlete of the year perhaps?

It appears that the 'slaughtering 50 bulls feast' will take place in the local primary school.

see
www.nation.co.ke/sports/athletics/Rudis ... index.html

[d pickup]

'PURE ECSTACY AS RUDISHA RETURNS HOME'

'ritual of being adorned with Esidai (Ostrich feather-clad traditional hat). He was then handed a walking stick (Eng’udi) and an orinka (rungu) ... This was capped by a swig of traditional sour milk, Kule naodok.'

'the ritual signifies Rudisha was made a young adult, a step up from moran, a young warrior.'

'climax on September 17 in Kilgoris where 50 cows are set to be killed to celebrate his achievement.'

see
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePa ... 9&j=&m=&d=

###

'800m mark ‘will be hard to shatter’

DR talks confidently that at present there are no athletes able to beat his record or himself.

'It will take another generation of athletes to dip under the brand new 800 metres world record of one minute, 41.01 seconds. That was the strong message from the record’s owner, David Rudisha'

'His next target is to be the first man to run under the 1:41 barrier.'

Sounds like a 100m runner - the next 0.01s.

DR's wife, Lizzy Naanyu is a human resource student at the Moi University in Eldoret.

'Rudisha will have to wait until next Friday to be bestowed the title of Maasai elder at his Kilgoris home.'

see
http://www.nation.co.ke/sports/athletic ... index.html

###

'‘Mum had running genes’

'his mother, Naomi, a former 400m hurdles runner ... twice Africa champion'

see
http://www.nation.co.ke/sports/athletic ... index.html

[d pickup]

'Thousands gather in Kilgoris for Rudisha’s homecoming celebration and warrior initiation ceremony'

'ritual required of the world record holder to formally take his place as a warrior amongst a tribe renowned for bravery in battle ... convoy that stretched a kilometre comprising of 50 motorbikes and some 25 vehicles led by a Police outrider ... Rudisha’s achievements showed ‘similar strength as that of killing a lion’

see
www.iaaf.org/news/kind=100/newsid=58344.html

###

'Warrior Rudisha earns place in frontline '

A little different to goat herding as a boy.

see
www.nation.co.ke/sports/athletics/Warri ... index.html

[d pickup]

'Rudisha’s agent reveals plot that saw his athlete break the world mark'

'the priorities is the world championships next year, I can see him being ready to run very fast in a one off race in June or July' Templeton, DR's Manager

www.kenyanrunningnews.com/2010/09/we-sa ... nager.html

[d pickup]

'Athlete On Top of the World'

This article pulls together a broad and up to date report on Rudisha - and DR looks to 1.40 ...

Whether he's thinking +ve split or -ve split or even split ... we'll have to wait and see.

see
http://allafrica.com/stories/201012070170.html

[d pickup]

relocated from AW 'hot gossip!' topic of 1feb 2011 10:18am

'David Rudisha, the beginning of a long journey…'

His current house, family background, early running career, 2011 training plans, 1m40s 800 possible ...

see
www.iaaf.org/news/magazine/newsid=59187.html

[d pickup]

'Kenya’s Rudisha Refocuses After Record Year'

A few new gems in this 2-page article.

see
www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/sports/02run ... ted=1&_r=1

[d pickup]

'A touch slower, but Rudisha still supreme'

3mar11 Melbourne AUS

'first 400 just behind pacemaker Sammy Tangui’s 50.29'

1.43.88 (1.43.15 in Australia last year)

see
www.iaaf.org/IWC11/news/kind=100/newsid=59441.html

[d pickup]

'Rudisha lined to spice Narok meet'

Some interesting comments re Rudisha's 2011 form and preparation, including by coach Bro Colm.

see
www.capitalfm.co.ke/sports/Local/5336.html

[d pickup]

Rudisha didn't run in Narok after all. Perhaps his coach prevailed (reading between the lines of yesterday's entry).

An aside: W 800 OLY Champ Pamela Jelimo did run, 2nd in 200 in 26.7; in 1500 she pulled out with 1 lap to go.

see
www.nation.co.ke/sports/athletics/Jelim ... index.html

[sikander]

I am waiting for the day when Rudisha is going to break 1:40 sec in 800 metre . I am never going to miss any race of his . I am trying to get tickets for london olympics of his race .

[d pickup]

I am waiting for the day when Rudisha is going to break 1:40 sec in 800 metre . I am never going to miss any race of his . I am trying to get tickets for london olympics of his race .

sikander
Enjoy, but meanwhile May-time Ostrava has scooped again (last year Bolt over 300m) with Rudisha over 1000m. Plenty of stats delights - and a bit of time to reflect: how will 400 up to 800 DR cope with 1000? Could be one of the special delights before Daegu.

[d pickup]

DR, 800 WR holder, is letting himself into new territory, by going for 1000m on 31may11, in Ostrava? It will be his first outing in the final lead up to Daegu '11 world champs (800: 27, 28 & 30 aug). He was, at the commencement of his career, a 400 runner.

All-time lists
800 (out)
1:41.01 David Lekuta Rudisha KEN 17/12/1988 1r1 Rieti 29/08/2010
1:41.11 Wilson Kipketer DEN 12/12/1972 1 Köln 24/08/1997
1:41.73 Sebastian Coe GBR 29/09/1956 1 Firenze 10/06/1981
1:41.77 Joaquim Cruz BRA 12/03/1963 1 Köln 26/08/1984
1:42.23 Abubaker Kaki SUD 21/06/1989 2 Oslo (Bislett) 04/06/2010
1000 (out)
2:11.96 Noah Ngeny KEN 02/11/1978 1 Rieti 05/09/1999
2:12.18 Sebastian Coe GBR 29/09/1956 1 Oslo 11/07/1981
2:12.88 Steve Cram GBR 14/10/1960 1 Gateshead 09/08/1985
2:13.56 Kennedy Kimwetich KEN 01/01/1973 2 Nice 17/07/1999
2:13.62 Abubaker Kaki SUD 21/06/1989 1 Eugene, OR 03/07/2010
2:13.73 Noureddine Morceli ALG 28/02/1970 1 Villeneuve-d'Ascq 02/07/1993
2:13.9 Rick Wohlhuter USA 23/12/1948 1 Oslo 30/07/1974
2:13.96 Mehdi Baala FRA 17/08/1978 1 Strasbourg 26/06/2003
2:14.09 Joaquim Cruz BRA 12/03/1963 1 Nice 20/08/1984

800 (IN) 1 1:42.67 Wilson Kipketer DEN '72 Paris (Bercy) 09/03/97
1000 (IN) 1 2:14.96 Wilson Kipketer DEN '72 Birmingham, GBR 20/02/00

All the athletes, in those 800/1000 all-time lists, except Kimweitch & Wohlhuter, had 1500 experience:
Kipketer
1500 Metres 3:42.80 01/01/1993
One Mile 3:59.57 Stockholm 05/07/1993
Coe
1500 Metres 3:29.77 Rieti 07/09/1986
One Mile 3:47.33 Bruxelles 28/08/1981
Cruz
1500 Metres 3:34.63 Hengelo 14/08/1988
One Mile 3:53.00 Westwood, CA 13/05/1984
Kaki
1500 Metres 3:39.71 Malmö 03/06/2008
Ngeby
1500 Metres 3:28.12 Zürich 11/08/2000
One Mile 3:43.40 Roma 07/07/1999
Cram
1500 Metres 3:29.67 Nice 16/07/1985
One Mile 3:46.32 Oslo 27/07/1985
Morcelli
1500 Metres 3:27.37 Nice 12/07/1995
One Mile 3:44.39 Rieti 05/09/1993
Baala
1500 Metres 3:28.98 Bruxelles 05/09/2003

[sovietvest]

All the athletes, in those 800/1000 all-time lists, except Kimweitch & Wohlhuter, had 1500 experience:

Wohlhuter was one of the world's best 1500m runners 74 - 76. So he reinforces what you seem ot be suggesting - 1000m could be a stretch for a 400/800 type like Rudisha. He appears more of a Juantorena / Gray / Tellez type but having said that I read that he does some of his longer sessions with 5k runners ,so he may be developing more stamina.

[d pickup]

All the athletes, in those 800/1000 all-time lists, except Kimweitch & Wohlhuter, had 1500 experience:

Wohlhuter was one of the world's best 1500m runners 74 - 76. So he reinforces what you seem ot be suggesting - 1000m could be a stretch for a 400/800 type like Rudisha. He appears more of a Juantorena / Gray / Tellez type but having said that I read that he does some of his longer sessions with 5k runners ,so he may be developing more stamina.

sovietvest

Thank you for that. My source, IAAF listings, included only 800 and 1000 under Wohlhuter's profile.

Interesting that DR has been working out with the 5k runners, and makes this venture into 1000.

Related to this, in the 'Coaching' topic:

Eddie (Sat Apr 02, 2011 9:41 am) asked 'Should 800m runners and 1500m runners aim to be competitive in both events?'

Pete S (Sat Apr 02, 2011 11:19 am) was prompted to add: 'who has sent their 800/1500 runners out on the cross country circuit this winter expecting this to yield fast times on the track this summer?'

So what DR & his coach are thinking I don't know. Meanwhile I look forward to the Ostrava Meet, 31May.

[d pickup]

All the athletes, in those 800/1000 all-time lists, except Kimweitch & Wohlhuter, had 1500 experience:

Wohlhuter was one of the world's best 1500m runners 74 - 76. So he reinforces what you seem ot be suggesting - 1000m could be a stretch for a 400/800 type like Rudisha. He appears more of a Juantorena / Gray / Tellez type but having said that I read that he does some of his longer sessions with 5k runners ,so he may be developing more stamina.

At last I've remembered to follow up on my curiosity as to what Rick Wohlhuter did at 1500/1ml & Wiki gave that: '1,500 meters 3:36.4; Mile 3:53.3' but I also came upon another article: a potpourri about Rick including his training which some might find interesting and be able to compare it with what is considered the best ways now.

see
www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thr ... 118&page=0

[d pickup]

'Rudisha rules out 400m and 1500m'

Rudisha will attempt to land his first world title at the August 27-Sept. 4 world championships in Daegu, South Korea while also competing in the $50 million elite Diamond League 14-event schedule that starts on May. 6 in Doha and ends in September.

'“[1.40] I said that as a possibility but it's not that easy and this year there are other things to concentrate on, the world championships being the priority,” he said. '

'“After that I will see if I can do one or two fast races.” '

'Zurich on September 8 and September 16 in Brussels. '

Rudisha runs
6 may Doha
26 May Rome
31 May Ostrava

see
www.iol.co.za/sport/athletics/rudisha-r ... -1.1060235

[d pickup]

'Rudisha: A warrior with the world at his feet'

A few gems of info here.

'Not since the 1880s and Lon Myers, the great American of the professional "pedestrian" foot-racing era, has the record for the distance been broken three times by the same athlete.'

see
www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/ath ... 77397.html