Osagie v Rooney

[oldboy]

It has been suggested in the past that it is time for Rooney to move up to 800m. I seem to recall that Jason suggested it in an editorial some time ago.

What could we expect if he did? Well someone, I know not who, devised the following rule:

400m time x 1.1 = A
A x 1.1 = B
Expected 800m time = A + B

Now applying this rule to Rooney’s SB we get:

44.92 x 1.1 = 49.412
49.412 x 1.1 = 54.3532
Total = 103.77 to 2 decimal places

What is Osagie’s SB? It is 103.77 exactly the same as the Rooney prediction.
What a coincidence.

[SteveK26]

I personally think that Rooney hasn't yet realised his potential at 400.
I may well be wrong, but I'm sure he will run sub 44.5 , hopefully next year. I find it hard to believe he was in top shape this year.
Osagie will (hopefully) go faster still; he has certainly achieved more than I dared hope this year. He has been a real find, and seems to now be European no. 1.

[oldboy]

Rooney's PB goes back to 2008 - not improved for four years. Perhaps a switch to 800 will see him moving forward again.

[Laps]

Rooney gives me the impression that he no longer believes in his ability to make an impact at the highest level. He seems to be going backwards.

[Dutch]

400m time x 1.1 = A
A x 1.1 = B
Expected 800m time = A + B

A long way for a short cut.

The rule is equivalent to multiplying by 2.31. It respresents a very rough and sometimes reasonable conversion factor. Some athletes will be around this factor, others won't be. For example, Juantorena's non-WR PB of 44.26s for 400m would map to an 800m time of about 1:42 - well below his actual WR for the distance. For true 400m/800m runners (runners who are about equally able at both distances), the predicted 800m time is significantly faster at the elite (male) level. As a second-order correction, you might want to add a second to the predicted 800m time.

Alternatively, you could use a much simpler conversion: multiply elite 400m times by 7/3 to get their approximate 800m counterparts. That's "double and add a third" - you can easily do it in your head without any "proper" multiply-accumulate steps, and it has the added bonus of being a much better conversion within the specific domain described (true 400m/800m, and elite).

What is Osagie’s SB? It is 103.77 exactly the same as the Rooney prediction.
What a coincidence.

They relate to completely different subjects. There is nothing remotely even coincidental here. It's like claiming that Andy Murray winning a set 6-2 on Stan Smith's 62nd birthday is a coincidence.

[Dutch]

...multiply elite 400m times by 7/3 to get their approximate 800m counterparts.

For completeness, I should have noted that this gives a predicted 800m time for Rooney, once he is as good at 800m as he is at 400m, of 1:44.8.

Which happen to be the digits in my PIN. What a coincidence!

[boysen]

Did not Mike Fleet, who I believe coached Rooney many years ago, opined that 800 would be his best distance...saying that all of 5-6-7 years ago?

[jambob]

He started off as an 800 runner and only switched around 2005.

[jjimbojames]

Did not Mike Fleet, who I believe coached Rooney many years ago, opined that 800 would be his best distance...saying that all of 5-6-7 years ago?

For all his ramblings (got to love the old boy) he's right.

If he seriously wants to get his best 400m time, Rooney needs to add some muscle to his frame and move to a group with better 400m runners - say hook up with the Borlees - as (no offence to him) training with the likes of Nathan Woodward won't push him to the 44.5 and below times he wants

I'd rather see him try the 800m next year - his place on the 4x400m is pretty secure and he has nothing to lose right now