W Hep

[felix]

Why is everbody being so negative? Chernova has been miles from here best all year long and Skujyte just does not have the talent as her 200m and 800m are REALLY poor and her long jump is 6.30s at best. I still call Ennis the favourite from here. Is she still ahead of her Gotzis score? I am sure she is. That would win it.

My feelings exactly! Has no one mentioned Jess is 40 points up on Gotzis?! 3062 to 3022....and she was behind Skuyte then as well. She will smash the 200 and be leading after the first day.

[ldnbloke]

Most people are worried rather than negative I hope.
I am expecting the best, the LJ scares me though...

[3a]

^ Problem is, Cherny threw half a metre more here than in Gotzis and if she fixes only did 6'40 in her LJ in Gotzis when she has a 6'80 in her.

AUstra can actually to 2.15 in the 800m, throw 52 in the Jav, LJ 6'30 ....

It's going to be close, but the point is.....it really doesn;t have to be. There is NO reason why Jess should be jumping 1'86 at best unless it means 15m in shot.

[jjimbojames]

There is NO reason why Jess should be jumping 1'86 at best unless it means 15m in shot.

This. I have no issue with trade offs, and in a sense, the HJ can be more susceptible to the weather than the SP, but she has to be consistently hitting longer distances to make it count

[Ursus]

If you want me, I'm behind the sofa.

[jjimbojames]

Why do they keep saying Jess has the fastest time in the 200m - Schippers is a couple of tenths quicker. Do your homework, boys

[Tuckin]

Why do they keep saying Jess has the fastest time in the 200m - Schippers is a couple of tenths quicker. Do your homework, boys

I know - and they kept saying it!! I've been tearing my hair out - they're such idiots (apart from Cram).

Great run from Jess.

[jjimbojames]

22.83 - could have done without the headwind though

Oh, and FFS - Chernova didn't beat Jess indoors - she didn't compete

[djhdjh]

Chernova did 23.67 - people forget that foreign athletes can screw up too. Solid LJ and this is won for sure.

[jjimbojames]

Chernova did 23.67 - people forget that foreign athletes can screw up too. Solid LJ and this is won for sure.

Chernova's second day is around 250 points better than Jess, so I think it's right to be cautious. Obviously, we all hope she can smash out a PB in the long jump (as she's clearly got the attributes for more than 6.51m) and seal the deal but are mindful that Chernova is a 6.80m/54m/2.06m girl

23.67 is only about a tenth off her best, so running form is there or thereabouts

[djhdjh]

I know how good Chernova is thank you (fair enough on the 200 - got too many heptathletes running through my head at the moment, had her confused with someone else). My main point is that everyone has been talking all day as if Chernova is going to beat PB's in every event and Ennis can't possibly do the same.

[jjimbojames]

I know how good Chernova is thank you (fair enough on the 200 - got too many heptathletes running through my head at the moment, had her confused with someone else). My main point is that everyone has been talking all day as if Chernova is going to beat PB's in every event and Ennis can't possibly do the same.

Ha - wasn't meant to sound like that, more just don't write her off - some people were hanging the gold round Jess' neck before she'd started the HJ...

[djhdjh]

Maybe it's because they believe in her? She's better than Chernova - note how everyone is in agreement that Ennis has to make a mistake and Chernova has to be perfect to win. Of course that chain of events can happen, I just happen to believe that Jess's javelin is solid - she's had 1 silly comp since she became world class. If you believe that, then the LJ (which I know from personal experience can be a hit and miss event) is the one to worry about.

Just to give some stats - Ennis still has the lead going into the 800 (albeit by 10 points) with 6.20 vs 6.65 and 44 vs 52.

[jjimbojames]

Woah - bit strong! People just don't want to get too excited to be disappointed - doesn't mean they don't believe in her, just she's had issues with the LJ, JT and HJ in the last two champs, so are cautious. Given the average Shot today as well, a little caution is surely better than over the top like some papers have been doing

Jess has loads of support on this board

[Tuckin]

Chernova's second day is around 250 points better than Jess, so I think it's right to be cautious.

Potenially, maybe, but not normally. She only took 100 out of Jess's overnight lead in Gotzis. 309 points is simply too much unless the LJ goes horribly wrong.

[3a]

Jess has loads of support on this board

I think you'll find she has full support from every member that ever there was

Which is why I too will be behind the couch tomorrow.....anyone else be joining us?

[djhdjh]

Woah - bit strong! People just don't want to get too excited to be disappointed - doesn't mean they don't believe in her, just she's had issues with the LJ, JT and HJ in the last two champs, so are cautious. Given the average Shot today as well, a little caution is surely better than over the top like some papers have been doing

Jess has loads of support on this board

I know everyone's supporting her and willing her to do it but I hardly think saying that someone with a 150 point lead overnight and a 300 point lead on her nearest rival has it within her grasp is the greatest stretch in the world or over the top. She has to grasp it but no one else can take it off her and the truth is that the only truly dodgy event she has is the LJ. I just think people overestimate what happened in the Javelin in Daegu, partly because after Sotherton people are used to the Javelin being the weak event. It was just 1 bad competition.

And why is a little caution better exactly - is Ennis going to suddenly fall apart because people expect her to win when that's been the case for years? Maybe the javelin will fall apart again in which case I'll look daft but I'm just stating what I think is likely to happen rather than what I fear will happen.

[jjimbojames]

A little bit of maths to show that this is Jess' Gold to lose, but that it will be a lot closer than some might suggest if both are in PB form
Day 1 - JE 4158, TC 3849 (309 lead)
Long jump - 10cm = 32 points. JE 6.51 vs TC 6.82 = 99 points (lead of 210 for JE overall)

Javelin - 1m = 19.5 points. JE 47.11 vs TC 54.49 = 144 points (lead of 66 points for JE overall)

800m - 1s = 14.5 points. JE 2.07.81 vs TC 2.06.5 = 19 points (win by 47 points for JE)

So a 6.40m LJ or 45m Jav against TC hitting PB will make for tense times. Obviously, TC could just as well be lacking in form in those events and has the pressure of needing to catch up vs Jess' pressure of just staying ahead. Personally, would love to see Jess out to 6.70m - I know she has it in her - and seal the deal early doors!

The papers have built Jess up so much that if she's doesn't win, I fear a backlash a la Tom Daley and the twitter episode - not deserved, but there are some small minded people out there who switch on the TV and are suddenly experts on the sport

[djhdjh]

I know how close it could be, don't be so patronising. What your analysis shows is that if it goes PB vs PB in Long Jump and Javelin Ennis will have a near 5 second lead going into the 800. So it still comes down to Chernova producing brilliance and Ennis being a certain amount off colour in 2 events running - if the next two events go as they did in Daegu she'll still be leading by what ought to be a decisive margin. So why is it so terrible of me to suggest she's almost there? I don't let my thoughts be dictated by morons and why should the papers not build Ennis up, she's one of our greatest athletes ever?

[jjimbojames]

I know how close it could be, don't be so patronising. What your analysis shows is that if it goes PB vs PB in Long Jump and Javelin Ennis will have a near 5 second lead going into the 800. So it still comes down to Chernova producing brilliance and Ennis being a certain amount off colour in 2 events running. So why is it so terrible of me to suggest she's almost there? I don't let my thoughts be dictated by morons and why should the papers not build Ennis up, she's one of our greatest athletes ever?

Jeez - chill out. It wasn't just for your benefit, and it wasn't patronising, merely a statement of where things are at

No problem with suggesting she's almost there - just as much as there's nothing wrong with people pointing out she isn't there yet. Same difference

[Tuckin]

Yet if you use SBs, which are arguably more realistic...

Jess:
Long Jump 6.51... 1010
Javelin 47.11... 804
800m 2:09.00... 979
Day 2 score: 2793

Chernova:
Long Jump 6.44... 988
Javelin 53.21... 922
800m 2:08.94... 980
Day 2 score: 2890

Personally I would expect Chernova to pull back a little more than this 97 points (as she's capable of so much more in the LJ) but less than 200.

[jjimbojames]

Yet if you use SBs, which are arguably more realistic...

Jess:
Long Jump 6.51... 1010
Javelin 47.11... 804
800m 2:09.00... 979
Day 2 score: 2793

Chernova:
Long Jump 6.44... 988
Javelin 53.21... 922
800m 2:08.94... 980
Day 2 score: 2890

Personally I would expect Chernova to pull back a little more than this 97 points (as she's capable of so much more in the LJ) but less than 200.

Jess also has SB in the HJ of 1.92 and the SP of 14.79 - though I largely agree with what you're saying

Christ - from trying to remain cautious I now sound like the negative one! As I say, I think Jess will pull a long jump PB out and she's obviously in good running form, so I hope she can put it together get over 7000

[Ecosse]

It would be very unlikely for Ennis to not win Gold from here. So we should be confident!

If Ennis performs under par in the next two events - 6.40m in the long jump and 45.00m in the javelin then Chernova would have to performly at her absolute best (which we haven't seen much evidence of so far) and jump 6.80m in the long jump and 54.00m in the javelin to still trail Ennis by a single point going into in the 800m.

I think it is more likely Ennis will get closer to her best so I don't see much chance of Chernova coming back.

Think we just need to hope for a decent first jump tomorrow to take the pressure off. Think we'd be pretty nervous with 2 no jumps.

[djhdjh]

So it was partly for my benefit jimbojames. Cheers, but I've been watching and taking part in athletics not to need the help. I can access all athletics and scores tables too.

I don't think there's anything wrong with saying she isn't there - I was basically admitting that by saying she needed the solid LJ. Obviously she needs the solid Javelin too, (though only if she gives Chernova more than 15cm in the Long Jump, otherwise she can give away 13m a la Daegu).

Just to finish this discussion, I'll say it's going to be a nervy day tomorrow, just because I'm more confident won't change that.

[jjimbojames]

Think we just need to hope for a decent first jump tomorrow to take the pressure off. Think we'd be pretty nervous with 2 no jumps.

Agree re the first jump - something around 6.40m would be a great start that she can build on. That said, the HJ was all about third attempts, so you never know...!

[sidelined]

Well, djhdjh, I'm grateful for jjimbojames' arithmetic, because I'm far too lazy to do the sums myself. And I'll be hiding behind the sofa, trying not to think that Jess's last long jump competition was - what - 6.28. Like everyone else, I hope she nails it.

[Tuckin]

I don't quite understand djhdjh's indignation, but there you go.

Anyway, further down it's close - Zelinka is 3rd and KJT 14th, but there's every chance KJT might overtake her in the first event tomorrow! (Though they'd probably only be around 10th and 11th in that scenario.)

[jjimbojames]

KJT is definitely the future. This is also a great event to blood her in - she's soaking it all up and will be all the better for the experience. If she can get Top 10 here, she should be over the moon

[SteveK26]

Lots of heated debate going on ....storm in a tea cup stuff! We all want Jess to win, and I think she will. But do we want it to be a walk in the park? I love the drama, and Skyuite had me reaching for the combined events tables when she launched her 17 + shot! Great stuff, and a bit of a shock to the system when she took a big lead. But then back came Jess in the 200.
Its pure drama, and I'm going to enjoy it, win or lose (prefer and expect win!).

K J-T has been fun to watch...someone said how she would benefit from this, how true that is. She should progress in the next couple of years to be in the mix herself. Indeed if she hits a 6-60 LJ she might finish top ten now.

Enjoy it people.

[d pickup]

JE's Gotzis's 6906
( 12.81/+0.0 - 1.85 - 14.51 - 22.88/+1.9 / 6.51/+0.8 - 47.11 - 2:09.00 )
-------------------------------------------------- 1010 ----- 804 ----- 979

On day 2 she set PBs in LJ and JT

Over 800 she has done 2.07.81 (997)

So in LDN? Another 6900-type score? She'd set pbs at 100h and 200

4158 + 943 + 744 + 994 = 6839
day1 + 6.30 + 44.00 + 2.08.00

--------- 6.40
--------- 975 + 32 = 6871

--------- 6.50 + 32 = 6903
---------1007

Is 6900 enough to win? Will any others pull up to that type of score?

- Austra Skujyte, LTU, 79, 1.88m, 82kg, PB 6493 '12
pbs 13.96, 1.91, 17.86, 24.82, 6.39, 52.63, 2.15.92
now at 3974; set pbs in HJ

- Jessica Zelinka, CAN, '81, 1.76m, 63kg, PB 6599 '12
pbs 12.68, 1.79, 14.97, 23.45, 6.19, 44.24, 2.07.95
now at 3903; set pbs in 100H, 200

Ludmila Yospenko, UKR, '84, 1.75m, 63kg, PB 6501 '12
pbs 13.25, 1.88, 14.32, 23.68, 6.40, 51.30. 2.12.51
now at 3902; set pbs in 100H, 200

- Hyleas Fountain, USA, '81, 1.70,. 65kg, '08 OLY 2nd 6619 , PB 6735 '10
pbs 12.78, 1.90, 14.26, 23.21, 6.89, 48.15, 2.15.32
now at 3900 248pts behind +1132 +824 + 888 = 6744
set pbs in 100h

Chernova, 9th 3849; =ed SP pb (out): 13.48, 1.80. 14.17, 23.67
Dobrynska, 10th 3835; 13.57, 1.83, 15.05, 24.69

Other than miracles they appear to be out of the reckoning