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Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Madrid)

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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby taffy » Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:36 am

Hang on did you watch the same Helsinki final as me? The 4*400 girls were shocking. Niciola has just run 53, so how would taking arisk on Jess be a further bad selection choice? At the mo its a low finish. who remembers 4,5 6 7 ,8? Yes jess could bomb out, OR she could run 50.3, who else is going to maybe do that? i could undersyand not risking it if we had a deffo bronze but after the russian results, which were expected, we now only have a slim chance of taking the Jamaicans.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby SteveK26 » Sun Jul 08, 2012 1:08 am

Slim to none, Taffy, if we are only firing on three cylinders!
I may be a fool, but if Jess was up for it I dont really see what there is to lose.
It all depends, I would imagine, on Jess doing a time trial somewhere.

edit....and showing she could produce a low 51, obviously. Lee is likely to be capable of a high 51 first leg, same as (maybe) Cox or Sanders. Unless one of those three makes a breakthrough soon. Not really sure what Child can do, but I suspect she is a better bet than the other three at the moment.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby gp72 » Sun Jul 08, 2012 10:10 am

Not sure what to expect from the Russians. They seem to have some unbelievable performances at their trials-which are never really reproduced elsewhere with a few exeptions(eg Isibyeva who consistently hit world class performances outside of Russia).
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby taffy » Sun Jul 08, 2012 10:25 am

I thought Child ran well in the heats and was ok in the final in Helsinki.

Lee has to be in it, she is by far the most consistent.

For me Nicola hasn't shown anything. I couldn't believe they ran her in the final in helsinki. Saying that cox was also poor.

The Russians will be fine in the relay. Hopefully in other vents, their recent returners will fail to perform.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby paul » Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:53 pm

I do take the point, guys.
At this stage none of us can really know whether it is more likely that Nicola manages one of her
later-in-the-season rushes to form; or Jess suddenly discovers a previously unknown capability over 400.
I certainly don't know.

I think perhaps what is in the back of my mind is this:
While Jess is an awesome scary superwoman
it sticks in my craw a bit that we should use her as a crutch to prop up our whole programme.
There are 60 million people in this country. Perhaps 10 million eligible for the 4x400 squad ( :shock: ).
Surely there is something we can do without Jess!!!
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby sidelined » Sun Jul 08, 2012 2:01 pm

Emily Diamond ran a 51 point leg at the World University Games last year off no 400 metre training at all, which is what made her decide to switch to the 400. So she has promise. Let's not forget that Maz's best relay split is 50.9. What surprises me is that Lee has been mostly running 52 all season when every other year she's run 51. Steve, I think your idea about Jess is crazy. She'll be exhausted after the heptathlon anyway.

I have a horrible feeling that debating this is the most joy we're going to get out of this event. I'd love to be wrong.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next half-hour (pt.2: Paris D

Postby Kermit » Sun Jul 08, 2012 3:07 pm

paul wrote:
hemlock wrote:TBO looks very close to getting it all together now.
Not there yet, but if there were 4 rounds in the Olympics things could start to get interesting.
(Pity there are -- I assume -- only 3.)


Yes. I think she's faster now than she had been since 2009, and over half a second faster now than
she was at this stage that year.
Similarly faster than this stage in 2008.

Based on her progress through to August in 2009 she would be in PB shape by August 2012.
Based on her 2008 trajectory, she would be in British record shape by August...

Meaningless I know. But I live to dream.


I believe that Lloyd and Christine are working on the 2008 periodised plan, therefore without any injuries she should peak in the final 8)

SteveK26 wrote:^
Which is precisely why I've been banging on about drafting in Ennis.
My final line-up would be:
Ennis....Child....Ohuorugu....Shakes-Drayton
...and hope that Ennis's 200 speed can help carry her to a low 51 (or better) opening leg. I'd have her on leg one so that she has athletes she can feed off, and will also hand over to (whoever) in a lane.

Its my honest opinion this gives us our only shot at a medal assuming no mishaps to the big guns. Its going to be no good having Maz, Nicola or Shana running a 52 first leg. Depending how Lee holds up, I might put her on 2nd instead of Eilidh.


Not Gonna Happen and here is the reason why - Heptathlon followed by a "potential" three rounds of 100m hurdles. I would much rather see Jess in the final of the 100m hurdles where she has a real chance of picking up a medal than in the 4x4.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby Tuckin » Sun Jul 08, 2012 3:22 pm

Isn't she just entered in the hurdles in case of an early heptathlon disaster, though (eg hitting a hurdle and going down/no height in the HJ)? I was under the impression she wouldn't run in the hurdles if the heptathlon goes normally.

(The hurdles is on the 6th and 7th; hept finishes on the 4th.)
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby iain » Sun Jul 08, 2012 3:47 pm

Diamond's leg was 51.93, so not [/b]that[/b] good. And Steve, if you would put in Lee over Eilidh on leg 2 then Eilidh could run leg 1, probably a low-51 there. And if we can get a fourth 50.5ish then we have a chance against Jamaica, who aren't looking that great IMO.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby taffy » Sun Jul 08, 2012 4:11 pm

Jess was only entered in the hurdles as back up for a hept disaster.

I know it's wishful thinking re re;ay, but thats the case with most line ups.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby Kermit » Sun Jul 08, 2012 4:27 pm

Even after completing the Heptathlon I still think she has a better chance of being in contention for a medal in the hurdles than testing the unknown of the 400m relay. And I am not saying it just as a fan but with my professional knowledge.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby taffy » Sun Jul 08, 2012 4:50 pm

Eunice barber didn't do so well , i think it was in seville after the heptathlon.

Kermit nobody is disputing Jess is an ace hurdler ,and silver and bronze are up for grabs, though im not sure she can go sub 12:65 which it will take.But she has said she will only take her place if she needs to.

In the relay, which she has never mentioned, she is faster over 200 and has more endurance stamina tahn any of the potential girls to fill up he tea after PSD, Big O and Lee.
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby Geoff » Sun Jul 08, 2012 4:55 pm

It must be very doubtful that Jess will do another event on top of the heptathlon. Assuming she gives her all in the heptathlon she will not be in great shape to hurdle competitively and she is such an unknown in the 400m and I'm not sure she will be risked unless there is an emergency.

The six for the w4x400 will be Ohuruogu, Cox, Shakes-Drayton, Sanders, McConnell and Child. There is over a month to go and current form during the Games will determine the composition and order. I can't see anyone else making the team, not even in the heats, unless there are inuries/illness. Hopefully, the likes of Sanders and McConnell will improve their times but even if they do I doubt we will see faster than around 51.3 which will be close to the time Cox runs. You will, therefore, have three athletes around 51.3 or possibly only two if one doesn't raise their game. If child runs low 54's in the hurdles she becomes a strong contender.

If that's the case you have to put CO or PSD on the opening leg if you want to be near the front.

My choice, subject to what I have said about how they run during the Games would be:

Ohuruogu, Cox, Child, PSD in that order. And I know that's a risk with CO on the first leg but perhaps in London and with a slightly different attitude she could deliver a 50flat opening leg.

But it could all change!
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby jambob » Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:09 pm

taffy wrote:Eunice barber didn't do so well , i think it was in seville after the heptathlon.

Kermit nobody is disputing Jess is an ace hurdler ,and silver and bronze are up for grabs, though im not sure she can go sub 12:65 which it will take.But she has said she will only take her place if she needs to.

In the relay, which she has never mentioned, she is faster over 200 and has more endurance stamina tahn any of the potential girls to fill up he tea after PSD, Big O and Lee.


On twitter, Katherine Merry asked Toni Minichiello about Jess running the 4 x 400. Katherine - Would you ever let her? Toni - sorry NO you assume 200m speed and 800m strength add up to make a 400 Forgetting about lactic tolerance!
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Re: Anything can happen in the next halfhour(III:Heusden/Mad

Postby Kermit » Sun Jul 08, 2012 6:34 pm

She was only being consideration for the 4x1
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