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World Championship Medal Expectations

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  • #64085
    Profile photo of treadwater1
    treadwater1
    Participant

    I thought I’d start a new thread as the topic has come up in a few threads

    I think we will be slightly down on the Rio medal haul if Rutherford isn’t there / in form and of course we will be missing the medal Ennis-Hill usually produces.

    Medal Zone: Farah x2, Pozzi, Muir, Hitchon, Grabarz, KJT (hep) and Ill say Bradshaw as she has got a good championship record, men’s 4×1, women’s 4×4 – they’re not in great form but the lack of quality in this event after the US and Jam teams leaves the door open

    Will go close (top 6): Shelayna OC, NMB ( I think there’s a gap in quality after WVN and DeGrasse with anyone of 4/5 guys who can take the bronze, however after another long NCAA season he might just miss out. Ujah, MHS, Butchart, KJT (HJ presuming she goes for it), Doyle, Men’s 4×4 (Botswana currently favourites for Bronze IMO), Women’s 4×1

    Top 8: Ugen, Giles and Jack Green making the final would be a fine achievement, Z Hughes if he goes, possibly Talbot, possibly Omoregie, Lake, Weightman, One of O’Hare and Wightman, L Sharp, Nick Miller, McColgan.

    Unsure: Proctor / Sawyers – will they get selected? Porter – No sign of her lately but consistently makes finals, Dina, Desiree (looked outstanding at times last year but so far hasn’t rediscovered that form), Gemili.

    #64086
    Profile photo of mysterybrick
    MysteryBrick
    Participant

    Didn’t you get the memo? There won’t be any medals beyond Mo and it will be the end of the world and British athletics is in its worst state ever.

    Agreed pretty much entirely on your assessment there – I think we will actually get a surprisingly high number of finalists, but for lots of these making the final will be their achievement.

    There will be one random medal, there always is, so my guess is 5 medals comprised of Farah x 2, one relay, one of Pozzi/Muir/Hitchon and one random one.

    #64122
    Profile photo of philipo
    philipo
    Participant

    I thought I’d start a new thread as the topic has come up in a few threads

    I think we will be slightly down on the Rio medal haul if Rutherford isn’t there / in form and of course we will be missing the medal Ennis-Hill usually produces.

    Medal Zone: Farah x2, Pozzi, Muir, Hitchon, Grabarz, KJT (hep) and Ill say Bradshaw as she has got a good championship record, men’s 4×1, women’s 4×4 – they’re not in great form but the lack of quality in this event after the US and Jam teams leaves the door open

    Will go close (top 6): Shelayna OC, NMB ( I think there’s a gap in quality after WVN and DeGrasse with anyone of 4/5 guys who can take the bronze, however after another long NCAA season he might just miss out. Ujah, MHS, Butchart, KJT (HJ presuming she goes for it), Doyle, Men’s 4×4 (Botswana currently favourites for Bronze IMO), Women’s 4×1

    Top 8: Ugen, Giles and Jack Green making the final would be a fine achievement, Z Hughes if he goes, possibly Talbot, possibly Omoregie, Lake, Weightman, One of O’Hare and Wightman, L Sharp, Nick Miller, McColgan.

    Unsure: Proctor / Sawyers – will they get selected? Porter – No sign of her lately but consistently makes finals, Dina, Desiree (looked outstanding at times last year but so far hasn’t rediscovered that form), Gemili.

    What do you mean by medal zone.? Are you saying that those athletes mentioned will or will not in your view likely get a medal.
    Hitchon has been unconvincing this year and last years big surprise does not mean she will keep repeating things; more competition this year I note from the Americans surprisingly.
    Pozzi will be in one of the most competitive fields in the WC; how often has he won this year against the top hurdlers,McLeod, Levy, Merritt, one other American, Ortega, Darien and a couple others; no medal in my view;a finalist yes.
    Muir a possible medal not 1500m for me but 5k a possible if the tactics are appropriate. Top 6 in the 1500m.
    Grabarcz has been utterly inconsistent this year in a poor year for High Jumping.
    Why our womens 4x400m.??

    #64127
    Profile photo of ursus
    Ursus
    Participant

    The only Brit I “expect” a medal from is Mo.

    One or two of the Miller / Hitchon / Pozzi type long shots may come off, but even with the impetus of a home champs the odds are against.

    If medals are the only currency in town it could be a sobering few days.

    #64130
    Profile photo of stevek26
    SteveK26
    Participant

    Didn’t you get the memo? There won’t be any medals beyond Mo and it will be the end of the world and British athletics is in its worst state ever.

    Agreed pretty much entirely on your assessment there – I think we will actually get a surprisingly high number of finalists, but for lots of these making the final will be their achievement.

    There will be one random medal, there always is, so my guess is 5 medals comprised of Farah x 2, one relay, one of Pozzi/Muir/Hitchon and one random one.

    Very defensive tone, Mystery.
    Those of us who think medals will be very hard to come by are not necessarily the doom merchants you like to portray us to be. We just see things differently from you at this moment in time.

    Take me for example.

    I expect no more than 4 medals. I will be delighted if we exceed that number.

    But I’m not gloomy for the future, far from it. There is a lot of talent out there but we need to progress it better, somehow. Thats a job for UK Athletics to get right.

    For the purposes of this thread I will nail my medal predictions to the mast:

    Mo to win two golds
    Muir a medal in the 5000

    perm one more from Pozzi, KJT, both sprint relays, Oskan-Clarke.

    Shelayna is the unluckiest athlete in our team. Her Championship record suggests she would be a tough match for any females in her event. Sadly her event will be blighted.

    #64132
    Profile photo of stevek26
    SteveK26
    Participant

    ……but , yes, I do think we will have a huge void to fill when Mo leaves the track behind.

    It may take quite a while to unearth another superstar of his ilk. Unfortunately his retirement will come hot on the heels of Jess, and nobody expects Greg to soldier on much longer.

    So there may be a year or two in the medals ‘doldrums’ unless we can get Dasher, Hitchon, Miller, Henry, KJT and one or two others firing on all cylinders again. Matt Hudson-Smith might well break the UK record in the near future but his event is wickedly competitive.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by Profile photo of stevek26 stevek26.
    #64140
    Profile photo of treadwater1
    treadwater1
    Participant

    I think Sophie looks in even better shape than she did last year, she opened the season with he 2nd best throw ever and threw her 4th longest ever the week before trials. She didn’t throw well at ETC agreed but I think that was partly down to the 3 throw format, she usually saves her best for rounds 5/6. Factor in Bronze last year and 4th the year before I think there’s a very good chance she will medal

    #64142
    Profile photo of stevek26
    SteveK26
    Participant

    I think Sophie looks in even better shape than she did last year, she opened the season with he 2nd best ever and threw her 4th longest ever the week before trials. She didn’t throw well at ETC agreed but I think that was partly down to the 3 throw format, she usually saves her best for rounds 5/6. Factor in Bronze last year and 4th the year before I think there’s a very good chance she will medal

    You are quite right, Treadwater.
    Sophie certainly falls into the ‘top 8’ category, and has an outside shot at a medal.

    She is a bit inconsistent at the moment though. A 73 in Ostrava followed by a 67 at our trials only a few days later.
    She will probably need a new British record in London to get on the podium, but that is achievable.
    It would be great to see Nick Miller make the men’s final as well.

    #64144
    Profile photo of laps
    Laps
    Participant

    I think Sophie looks in even better shape than she did last year, she opened the season with he 2nd best throw ever and threw her 4th longest ever the week before trials. She didn’t throw well at ETC agreed but I think that was partly down to the 3 throw format, she usually saves her best for rounds 5/6. Factor in Bronze last year and 4th the year before I think there’s a very good chance she will medal

    What is more in Beijing and Rio she did it with PBs. If she were to add 1.5-2 metres onto this season’s best, as she did the last two years, then she would be one of the favourites for a medal. Is she the one for the big occasion?

    #64145
    Profile photo of mysterybrick
    MysteryBrick
    Participant

    I think Sophie looks in even better shape than she did last year, she opened the season with he 2nd best <span class=”vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default”><span class=”vm-hook” style=”color: rgb(0, 153, 0); border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0, 153, 0);”>throw</span><span class=”vm-hook-icon” style=”display: inline-block;”></span></span> ever and threw her 4th longest ever the week before trials. She didn’t throw well at ETC agreed but I think that was partly down to the 3 throw format, she usually saves her best for rounds 5/6. Factor in Bronze last year and 4th the year before I think there’s a very good chance she will medal

    What is more in Beijing and Rio she did it with PBs. If she were to add 1.5-2 metres onto this season’s best, as she did the last two years, then she would be one of the favourites for a medal. She is the one for the big occasion?

    Corrected your post, Laps. 5 out of her last 6 SBs (including last 4 PBs) have come in a GB vest either at Olympics, World Champs or European Team Champs.

    #64150
    Profile photo of mrme
    MrMe
    Participant

    Are we counting the roads in these predictions?

    Callum Hawkins could possibly be up there. Although his lack of racing recently suggests things might not be going to plan. Tom Bosworth also has a chance.

    #64296
    Profile photo of philipo
    philipo
    Participant

    The only Brit I “expect” a medal from is Mo.

    One or two of the Miller / Hitchon / Pozzi type long shots may come off, but even with the impetus of a home champs the odds are against.

    If medals are the only currency in town it could be a sobering few days.

    They are not the only currency in town, but UK Sport, UKA, team selectors, The frigging media and the fans seem to think so.!!

    #65336
    Profile photo of sovietvest
    sovietvest
    Participant

    Track and Field News have posted their formcharts – essentially their predictions. They just have Mo (two firsts) and the Men’s 4×100 team in the top 3.

    I think Mo will get a silver in the 10,000m behind Kamworor but come back to win the 5. I fancy KJT for silver or bronze in the Heptathlon and Muir for bronze in the 1500 (assuming Obiri doesn’t double – they still seem to have a place in the Kenyan team at 1500). Then I think on elf the relay teams is likely to sneak a bronze.

    #65354
    Profile photo of philipo
    philipo
    Participant

    No easy medals this time. Mo can win two medals; I am confident that no other African will convincingly go out and set a very fast pace, that’s been predicted several times and has not happened.
    I see no medal for Pozzi but if fit a final place at least; I reckon one USA guy, Merritt, and both the Jamaicans look very handy; do not underestimate Schubenkov also.
    I have had my say on Muir; I looked at her performance in Monaco in the 3K and she hardly responded in the last two laps and certainly made no inroads on the number 2 in that race, a Kenyan who is a steepler; LM ran her best stuff in Feb and March, imo;; quite a bit faster in the 3k indoors.

    KJT is an inconsistent athlete to for me though she may get a medal, but one of her lousy LJ comps and/or a 12m/38 m Shot and Jav and she probably will not.
    Note at the French Championships she did 3 events in a special competition; she threw the Shot 12.10 m.

    Our short relay men have a poor record in globals since the unexpected Gold in 2004 so I somewhat loath to prefer them for a medal against other teams, who incidentally also screw up, of course; I reckon that the Chinese and even the Japanese will be up there for medals. If our guys pass the baton perfectly and don’t foul up at their best, they will be in a group of four teams including the USA and Jamaica in with a chance of a medal; must not forget Canada, who screwed up the other night.
    Hitchon had her moment last year and I do not see her medalling again this year;

    #65992
    Profile photo of alfie
    Alfie
    Participant

    I see nothing on this lately so I guess the general mood is …mildly pessimistic?

    Fair enough : though I take Steve’s point that lack of medals might not mean total disaster in the medium/long term.

    But I am an optimist by nature so I will retain hopes that things might end up a little better than expected (though I won’t be shocked if it doesn’t)

    Only one banker this time : Mo (how he will be missed !) will surely win two medals – hopefully Gold: barring accidents I’m not sure anyone can live with him on a last lap.

    But for the rest : I reckon there are a number of decent to good chances (perhaps not as many as usual) : Muir – tough event. She could run out of her skin and come up with nothing : but I’ve a hunch she might get it right on the night this time. (The presence of Semenya might work to her advantage in that it might influence the tactics of some of her rivals. This event is so strong that even the rounds have a potential to upset applecarts – especially if one semi ends up loaded.) I fancy her for a medal though I wouldn’t attempt to nominate a colour.
    KJT , Hitchon , Bradshaw …all look to be in the mix . and (a little more luck-dependent) Pozzi , Oskan-Clarke, Grabarz – even Child possibly – aren’t that far away. If crowd support counts for anything you’d reckon a couple of these might get up ?
    And finally the much loved relays : sure they might drop the baton (fifty-fifty ?) but so might others …again I reckon the crowd might help bring one or two home. we shall see soon enough.

    I think 5-7 isn’t impossible – though it needs some luck. In any case I am looking forward to the competition…and not much sleep ! Bring it on…

    #65995
    Profile photo of larkim
    larkim
    Participant

    5-7 would be a very good outcome, especially if backed up with plenty of finals performances and PBs for those who don’t make it to the finals.

    Fewer than 3 would be a real disappointment and underperformance, but again if backed up with well earned 4th places, PBs and other good breakthrough performances to be honest we should be satisfied that that would represent performing to expectations (Mo x 2 plus KJT would be my 3 that if there are no medals there would be disappointing, no matter what the colour).

    #65997
    Profile photo of sovietvest
    sovietvest
    Participant

    T&FN’s form chartis a pretty objective, unbiased view. That has 3 medals for us. One of those however is the W4x400 which seems based on last year’s performance and doesn’t seem to take into account the poor form of our current squad.

    I actually think 2 medals (for Mo) would represent ‘par for the course’ on current form. Lots of athletes can expect top 6 and I am sure a couple of those will rise to the occasion and get medals. On that basis, I think 4 would be a good return for the current squad,which is undergoing a ‘changing of the guard.

    Would love to see KJT get a medal but she’s up against the 3 who beat her (despite her pb) in Gotzis. I was also discouraged by the reference on the BBC last night to her saying there was no point focusing on her weak events and she is trying to get even better in her strong ones. Bizarrely, Gaby asked Backley for his opinion on this strategy and ignored Mininchello and Lewis.

    #65998
    Profile photo of ursus
    Ursus
    Participant

    I was also discouraged by the reference on the BBC last night to her saying there was no point focusing on her weak events and she is trying to get even better in her strong ones.

    Who on earth said that?

    You’re only as strong as your weakest link.

    #65999
    Profile photo of ladyloz
    Ladyloz
    Participant

    I guess the cautious/pessimistic predictions are based on Mo being our only banker which is understandable. However this is not Helsinki 2005 where we were scrabbling around for finalists. With a home crowd surely some of those who make finals will then get inspired.

    5-7 sounds reasonable to me. 5 is probably more realistic but 7 is not outrageous with a bit of luck.

    #66000
    Profile photo of trickstat
    trickstat
    Participant

    You’re only as strong as your weakest link.

    I think a fairly broad-based approach is best. For KJT, I think that the 200 and 800 probably pretty much look after themselves but she cannot neglect the jumps because of the risk of her run-ups going to pot. She certainly needs to continue to work on the throws even if it only serves to get her more consistent and reliable around about the level of her current PBs. I also think she could run a little quicker in the hurdles.

    Ultimately what matters is total points. An athlete getting 800 points each in 2 events gains nothing on another who gets 900 in one and 700 in the other. Maybe KJT could focus massively on the shot for a year or so and start putting high 13s. This would gain her about 100 points but would almost certainly lead to her losing more than that in other events that she has neglected.

    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Profile photo of trickstat trickstat.
    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Profile photo of trickstat trickstat.
    • This reply was modified 1 year ago by Profile photo of trickstat trickstat.
    #66006
    Profile photo of laps
    Laps
    Participant

    T&FN’s form chart is a pretty objective, unbiased view. That has 3 medals for us. One of those however is the W4x400 which seems based on last year’s performance and doesn’t seem to take into account the poor form of our current squad.

    I actually think 2 medals (for Mo) would represent ‘par for the course’ on current form. Lots of athletes can expect top 6 and I am sure a couple of those will rise to the occasion and get medals. On that basis, I think 4 would be a good return for the current squad,which is undergoing a ‘changing of the guard.

    Would love to see KJT get a medal but she’s up against the 3 who beat her (despite her pb) in Gotzis. I was also discouraged by the reference on the BBC last night to her saying there was no point focusing on her weak events and she is trying to get even better in her strong ones. Bizarrely, Gaby asked Backley for his opinion on this strategy and ignored Mininchello and Lewis.

    The T&F formchart has changed several times in the last few days. Mo has been a constant but at various times they have had KJT, both 4x100m relays and now the W4x400m down for bronze. Predicting is just a bit of fun, for us.

    As for KJT after years of reading stuff on here I came round to the view that she was just not built to throw, and trying to improve Shot and Javelin apart from knocking the rough edges off her technique could have a negative result overall. Could her comment just be a reaction to people obsessing about it? I am sure she works hard at all the events and will have tried all the strategies by now. She is a consistently bad thrower and I just accept that her Shot and JT are what they are (12.50+-0.5, 38+-2m). How she scores overall will depend on whether the Lj and Hj are excellent or average imo.

    #66007
    Profile photo of sovietvest
    sovietvest
    Participant

    I was also discouraged by the reference on the BBC last night to her saying there was no point focusing on her weak events and she is trying to get even better in her strong ones.

    Who on earth said that?

    You’re only as strong as your weakest link.

    According to Gaby Logan – KJT said it!

    #66008
    Profile photo of sovietvest
    sovietvest
    Participant

    I think KJT can be a 6800 + athlete just by nailing her LJ and HJ and 200. That will win a medal. However, if she has ambitions of ever beating a fit Thiam (whose shoulder could prove her weak link – that she always seem to hold after a good SP or JT) then she cannot keep giving away 100 – 200 points in the JT and SP.

    There’s a great post on T&FN MB by Gabriela who pointed out there was 140 points to be picked up in Gotzis had her 6.8x LJ not been a foul and had she run to her potential in the 800. He also points out that she was doing heavy weights right up to Gotzis.

    #66012
    Profile photo of carterhatch
    carterhatch
    Participant

    Finally the waiting is over…

    If we do end up with three medals, two coming from one athlete, than UKA should be ashamed, particularly as it is a home world championships.

    I will try to remain positive …

    CJ Ujah and Pozzi, might sneak a bronze, and the 4×100 have the raw speed but that pesky baton …So with two Farah medals… there might be a maximum 5 from the men …

    Muir, I really hope gets one medal, I see Sharp picking off a couple in the home straight for a bronze… My belief in KJT has taken a serious bashing, but a medal is hers to loose in the Hep, with Hitchon and Bradshaw both possible podium if others dont perform and the crowd lifts. The women’s 4×100 relay, with DASHER, has a chance, so if the stars align, lets call it from 6 chances, 4 medals…

    Any one else? The long jump girls could get a medal, I would really like to see Jack Green overcome his challenges to get a medal, maybe, just maybe as part of the 4×400 …

    So anywhere in the range of 7-9 is good, and given the millions in funding, where UKA should be aiming at the very least.

    I want to see the lesser lights treating rounds/qualifiers as their ‘finals’, I do hope they all raise their game in front of the home crowd, and I look forward to at least one athlete rising from mediocrity, McColgan, maybe, Henry hopefully, possibly Prescod [though I think both have greater potential at 200], otherwise its looking a very weak team.

    As a minimum I want to season’s bests, I dont see many national records, but it will take MHS one to just reach the final …

    Good Luck to you all…

    #66015
    Profile photo of ursus
    Ursus
    Participant

    I was also discouraged by the reference on the BBC last night to her saying there was no point focusing on her weak events and she is trying to get even better in her strong ones.

    Who on earth said that?

    You’re only as strong as your weakest link.

    According to Gaby Logan – KJT said it!

    Oh Gawd.

    I’m not going to dissect this yet again. But if that really is her mindset, expect the switch to individual events sooner rather than later.

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