We know what he can do when he is a) a couple of years younger than he is now and b) when he still has track success at the back of his mind.
How much marathon potential has he really still got? His HM yesterday (downhill course etc etc) was still about the 15th fastest in the world this year, off the back of very little specific road running training. And you’d still bet on him to out sprint most if he got to within 385yds of the finish line tied for the lead.
Given what we know about his mentality of wanting to win, I can’t see him entering London now with any intention of doing anything other than winning it. I presume the best British runners (excl Mo) will be at the CWG instead, so worrying about being better than Hawkins will not be an issue in this marathon. But the best East African’s won’t be putting CWG medals ahead of big city races, so the entries are likely to be strong, possibly even better if they think they have the chance to take down Mo. I’m intrigued to see how it goes. He has nothing to prove to me, he could turn up and run it in a clown costume as far as I’m concerned, but if he is serious about entering to win it it could be fascinating.
I agree he will be running to win London next year.
For the first time he won’t have the distraction of track to impede his road running aspirations. For that reason I expect him to improve considerably on what has gone before.
Can he win ? A tough ask, and depends on who turns up. Will he be competitive? Absolutely.
I’m not sure how long the full transition from track to road will take. But by the end of his journey I’m betting Mo will have the British best against his name, ( Callum Hawkins will have other ideas, so it should be exciting times ahead) !
Yesterday I cycled past some kind of off road running event and a bloke dressed in full cricket kit including pads and bat was busy overtaking some more conventionally attired runners. Not sure if that’s more humiliating than being beaten by a rhino.
OK, might be a slow burn over the next few months, Steve, but just remember the fuss around his previous 1.5 appearances and double it now he’s retired from the track. The BBC preview and montage departments and Virgin marketing teams aren’t going to be under selling this. Papers will profile him to death.
Just hope that he’s up against a proper, usual London standard, field.
No apologies necessary, Steve. The majority of posters here are fairly sane!
Mrme. I think Mo’s previous experience with the marathon will have taught him that it’s to be respected, so I think he’ll give it a proper crack. Agree that he’s unlikely to win Big City events, but may be in with a chance in slower run champs races.
I don’t quite buy that he can’t / won’t win big city events. With sub 60 clockings in recent years to his name, he’s still right up there with the best in the world in terms of HM efforts. I know that is a poor relation to the marathon in terms of quality and depth, but in broad terms you’d have to say that if 60flat is a HM effort (4m35 pace), 63/63 should be well within reach (4m48 pace). And who knows, 63/63 could be 62:30/62…
I agree that I think if he was on the start line for a champs marathon I wouldn’t bet against him, but I’m not writing off his big city potential just yet. THough he does appear to find longer races more of a strain currently. Reckon he needs to knock out some LSRs
Mrme. I think Mo’s previous experience with the marathon will have taught him that it’s to be respected, so I think he’ll give it a proper crack.
We will see but now his legacy is assured I doubt he will feel he’s adding to it by finishing down the field in big city marathons.
I don’t quite buy that he can’t / won’t win big city events. With sub 60 clockings in recent years to his name, he’s still right up there with the best in the world in terms of HM efforts.
Not really the best in the world run 58 mins. Given he is a 3:28 1500m runner I think his half marathon times exaggerate his marathon potential. He is clearly a more talented track athlete than road runner. The marathon really finds you out.
I agree that I think if he was on the start line for a champs marathon I wouldn’t bet against him
I definitely would bet against him. World/Olympic Marathon medals are very, very competitive and the races unpredictable. They are unlikely to come down to a sprint finish.
Last 4 Olympics have been won in 2:10, 2:06, 2:08 and 2:08. I’d back Farah to be able to contend in a 2:08 Olympic or World Champs marathon, through a calm head, tactical awareness etc.
They are tactical, but with limited depth of runners per nation, no pacemakers and often a denuded field as the lure of the $$$ in big city races pulls away star turns, I still think Farah could be on the start line as a favourite.